Tualatin Valley Fire & Rescue is maintaining a burn ban while a federal forecast warns that wildfire risk across the Pacific Northwest will stay above normal through September.
The National Interagency Fire Center's (NIFC) September-through-December outlook, published Tuesday, Sept. 8, projects below-normal precipitation and warmer-than-normal temperatures for the Northwest through December. Drought is expected to persist in the region even as it improves across the southern two-thirds of the West.
Large-fire risk is forecast to run above normal through September before returning to normal from October through December, according to NIFC. The agency said west-side temperatures trend warm, with a slower-than-usual shift into cool-season weather leaving dried-out fuels exposed deeper into fall.
The outlook arrives during Oregon's costliest fire season on record. More than 1,500 wildfires had burned 2.5 million acres statewide as of Aug. 20, surpassing 2024's record, according to the Oregon Department of Forestry. Firefighting costs hit an estimated $236.2 million, outpacing 2024's final tally by about $35.3 million.
Jessica Neujahr, an Oregon Department of Forestry spokeswoman, told Willamette Week on Aug. 29 that the season has been "all hands on deck."
TVF&R is already stretched. The fire district deployed a strike team to the East Evans Creek Road Fire near Medford on July 16, after that blaze grew past 11,000 acres. TVF&R also sent incident management personnel to the Lower Dry Creek Fire near Umatilla County.
Closer to home, the Austin Fire burning 25 miles southeast of Estacada had reached 12,610 acres with 22% containment as of Sept. 8.
A brush fire on Southwest Elwert Road near Sherwood burned 2 acres on Aug. 11, drawing 15 TVF&R vehicles. A landfill fire near Hillsboro on Aug. 8 sparked a 25-acre brush fire that forced firefighters to evacuate two homes as gusty winds pushed flames through cut grass.
On Aug. 4, Tigard police canceled National Night Out visits because of wildfire smoke and temperatures forecast to reach 94 degrees.
Behind the extended risk is a rapidly strengthening El Niño. The Climate Prediction Center projects a more than 95% chance of a very strong El Niño by November, lasting through winter.
For the Northwest, that pattern means drier-than-normal conditions. NIFC's outlook noted that historical analogs point to at least one moderately strong east-wind event in September that could spark new fires.
Nationwide, 53,665 fires had burned nearly 8.4 million acres from Jan. 1 through Sept. 8. In the same period of 2025, fires totaled 48,114 and burned nearly 4.3 million acres.
Tigard residents can sign up for the city's Everbridge emergency notification system, which replaced CodeRED on July 20 and delivers alerts about fires, severe weather and other emergencies by text, phone or email.
